Welcome to 2010. How these times affect you depends on where you’re at in your life and business clearly this has been a time of reflection—an inner look at what things really matter. I am a realistic and optimistic person; yet, it pretty much goes without saying that we are in the most interesting of times. There’s nothing like a good recession to get one’s attention. I personally like to believe that the only view from the bottom is up.

My first mate and I have been thinking about a bigger boat. But then I read about how the economy may have just eaten away my once-thought-to-bereliable pension. What would I do if my pension fell far short and I had to keep working into my seventies? I know many of you contractors have partners or owners that stay in the business well past the conventional retirement age; but really, is that what is looming for all us boomers? I was dreaming of a life of cruising on the west coast not too far off in the not too distant future.

The downturn has had a radical effect on our apprenticeship training program. As most of you would understand, the biggest carnage from recent lay-offs has been among the younger, less experienced apprentices, and we have seen a virtual drying up of new apprentices interested in level one schooling. The idea that this slowdown would be a good time to go to school has not really caught on with our future workforce The reality is our apprentices are only interested if there is a job waiting for them, so it’s hard to blame them for moving on when they find out that they are no longer indispensable. This is resulting in the worst of the classic “boom bust” effect on the construction industry, and there will be significant infrastructure rebuilding to do once we get going again. We have seen many talented people who now sit on the sidelines, disaffected by the industry.

The hard thing to get your head around is that the demographic tsunami of boomers getting ready to leave the work force is still sitting there, just a few years ahead, peaking in, say, 2015. This is coincident with the realistic date for the return to “normal” we all yearn for. So there we’ll be with lots of work, but not enough skilled workers. Just think— another perfect storm.

So what does this all mean? Do I buy the bigger boat or do I make myself content with what I have? “There’s never been a better time to buy or build,” say the Wall Street tycoons. “The underlying conditions are all good; we just need to get past this temporary crisis of confidence”—another favourite. Likewise, we will live to see another day and eventually there will be a new normal. Most people think the new normal will look something like 2005. We trained 100 new apprentices in 2005 and actually started our whole training program that year because everyone was looking for the up-coming skilled labour force.

In fact, nothing has changed. “The more things change, the more they stay the same.” My grandfather always preached moderation in everything—eating, drinking, working, playing ... sage advice, timeless, and just as appropriate now as it was then. “Don’t throw out the baby with the bath water.” Our wheels will start to turn, slowly at first, then a little faster. Let’s just not let it go as fast as it did—let’s pray for some normal for the next few years. MC